“We were terrified,” the 65-year-old Hubalde recalled. “We thought China might attack when they learned there were military exercises in Batanes.” Hubalde’s helper, who was in the fields when the troops arrived, panicked and hid in the woods until nightfall. “She thought the war had already started,” said Hubalde, who owns a variety store in the provincial capital, Basco.
Since then, Batanes’ 20,000 residents have become accustomed to high-tempo war games in these islands of tightly packed towns and villages wedged between rugged slopes and stony beaches. Among them: a series of joint exercises from April to June this year in which U.S. forces twice airlifted anti-ship missile launchers here.
Until recently, locals say, this smallest and least populous province of
the Philippines was a peaceful backwater. But geography dictates that
it is now on the frontline of the great power competition between the
United States and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. The
islands sit on the southern edge of the Bashi Channel, a major shipping
lane between the Philippines and Taiwan that connects the South China
Sea with the Western Pacific.
This
year’s exercises revealed how the U.S. and its Philippine ally intend
to use ground-based anti-ship missiles as part of efforts to deny the
Chinese navy access to the Western Pacific by making this waterway
impassable in a conflict, Reuters reporting shows. These missiles could
also be used to attack a Chinese fleet attempting to invade Taiwan or
mount a blockade against the democratically governed island.
The
ability to conduct operations deep into the Pacific would be vital for
the Chinese navy if it wanted to counter U.S. and Japanese attempts to
intervene in a Taiwan crisis. Chinese naval and air forces would also
need to operate in the Western Pacific to stymie any counter-measures by
the U.S. and its allies if Beijing imposed a blockade on Taiwan.
“We
should have the ability to deny the Chinese control of the Bashi
Channel,” retired Rear Admiral Rommel Ong, a former vice-commander of
the Philippine Navy, told Reuters in an interview. “In a conflict
scenario, that decisive point will determine who wins or who loses.”
Retired
General Emmanuel Bautista, a former chief of staff of the Armed Forces
of the Philippines, put it even more plainly: “The invasion of Taiwan is
almost impossible if you don’t control the northern Philippines.”
China
views Taiwan as its own territory, and President Xi Jinping has said
that Beijing refuses to renounce the right to use force to gain control
of the island. Taiwan's government rejects China's sovereignty claims,
saying only the island's people can decide their future.
“The
Taiwan issue is China's internal affair,” the foreign ministry in
Beijing said in response to questions. “How to resolve it is solely
China's own business and does not warrant interference from others.” The
ministry also said it advised the Philippines “against using any
pretext to draw in external forces” and not to provoke confrontation and
create "tensions in the South China Sea.”
The Pentagon did not respond to questions. Taiwan’s defense ministry declined to comment for this story.
