The fear that machines will replace human labor is a durable one in the public mind, from the time of the Luddites in the early 19th century. Yet most economists have viewed “the end of humans in jobs” as a groundless fear, inconsistent with the evidence. The standard view of technical change is that some jobs are displaced by the substitution of machines for labor, but that the fear of total displacement is misplaced because new jobs are created, largely due to the technology-fueled increase in productivity. Humans have always shifted away from work suitable for machines and to other jobs. This was true in the 1930s, when the shift was away from agriculture, through the 1990s and early 2000s, when the shift was largely out of manufacturing.
However, the expansion of what can be automated in recent years has raised the question: Is this time different?
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